Understanding the Fallacy of Confusing Correlation with Causation: Critical Insights and Examples

Due before midnight tonight.oct 6th

Student # 1

Maribel Balaoro

Confusing correlation with causation is a fallacy due to the assumption that just because two things occur together, one must cause the other. Which overlooks the possibility of a third factor, although unseen it can be influencing on both, or it may haps be coincidental occurrence.

One example I can think of is: “As ice cream sales increase, so do drowning deaths. Therefore, ice cream causes the chance of drowning.” Absurd as it may sound, but while there is a correlation might exist, the true cause is likely a third factor: the season summertime. Warmer weather leads to increased ice cream consumption and more people swimming, thus increases the chance of drowning incidents.

It is crucial to remember that just because there is a correlation doe not mean it’s a causation, with true investigation can we establish true causation.

References:

H., D., S., J., H., J., H., B., A., R., D., K., & E., J. (2024, August 13). So what’s the deal with ice cream and murder?Kansas City Direct Primary Care. https://kansascitydirectprimarycare.com/

Correlation and causation. Australian Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/understanding-statistics/statistical-terms-and-concepts/correlation-and-causation#:~:text=A%20correlation%20between%20variables%2C%20however,the%20values%20of%20the%20other

Student # 2

Victoria Grachico

· Why is it a fallacy to confuse causation and correlation?

Correlation is how much two or more variables change together (Castelli, n.d.). Casuation is how one is the cause of the effect of the other. Cause-and-effect relationship. Understanding causation and correlation are two often misunderstood concepts. It is a fallacy to confuse causation and correlation when the correlation between two variables is confused as one being the variable causing the other one to change.

· Provide an example of a statement that confuses causation with correlation.

An example of a statement that confuses causation with correlation is that ice cream sales causes more sunburns.

The two variables are correlated to hot and sunny weather. However, the confusion is that ice cream sales is the reason why people are getting sunburned. That is likely not the case. However, on hot days, more people tend to buy ice cream to cool down and the people outside in general are just getting sunburned from being out in the sun. Both are increased because of the hot day, not because of each other.

It is key to not misinterpret the two unless there is more evidence.

References:

Castelli, J. (n.d.). Correlation vs. Causation: The Danger of Misinterpreting Them. Spread Great Ideas. https://spreadgreatideas.org/contrasts/correlation-vs-causation/